gjm comments on Excuse me, would you like to take a survey? - Less Wrong

12 Post author: Yvain 26 April 2009 09:23PM

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Comment author: MichaelHoward 26 April 2009 11:17:00PM *  4 points [-]

interesting questions...

What's your take on the simulation argument? If you've no strong opinion, pick the most likely:

  • The human species is very likely to go extinct before reaching a “posthuman” stage.
  • Any posthuman civilization is extremely unlikely to run a significant number of simulations of their evolutionary history (or variations thereof).
  • We are almost certainly living in a computer simulation.
  • I deny that at least one of the above propositions is true.
  • I'm unfamilier with the simulation argument.

<Edit - simplified main 3 propositions and clarified other options>

Comment author: gjm 26 April 2009 11:30:06PM 2 points [-]

I would prefer a more general question about arguments of this form (doomsday argument, "thirdism" in the Sleeping Beauty problem, etc.). I know of very intelligent people who think such arguments are obviously sound and very intelligent people who think they are obviously unsound.

Comment author: mattnewport 26 April 2009 11:55:28PM 3 points [-]

Count me in the camp that thinks they are obviously pointless.

Comment author: MichaelHoward 27 April 2009 12:43:52PM 1 point [-]

One reason I'm interested in this is that people's choices vary but most people, myself included, believe their choice is clearly correct.

In fact, I'd ask for another question beneath it: If you picked one of the first 4 options, how confident are you that you're correct?

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