Vaniver comments on Negative and Positive Selection - Less Wrong

71 Post author: alyssavance 06 July 2012 01:34AM

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Comment author: komponisto 05 July 2012 02:48:59AM 1 point [-]

Not if his high-school GPA is 2.0.

Comment author: Vaniver 05 July 2012 03:14:40AM 2 points [-]

I think more highly of Harvard's admission department than that. At the very least, Andraka has shown himself capable of finding a champion within the system through persistence.

Comment author: AlexMennen 05 July 2012 04:00:49AM 18 points [-]

I got into UC Berkeley with a high school GPA of 2.9 by talking about math with professors. This strategy failed everywhere else, and would have failed at Berkeley if I hadn't been lucky enough to find a professor stubborn enough to argue with the admissions office again after they ignored him the first time. On the other hand, my accomplishments are not even close to as impressive as Andraka's, so he might have an easier time with this strategy even with a worse GPA.

Anyway, if you've done anything impressive, finding a champion within the system is easy. Andraka had a hard time with that step because he was trying to get support before doing something cool rather than after. Now, the vast majority of biology professors would gladly stand up for him to their institution's admissions department. But this strategy requires persistence on the part of the champion, as well as the applicant.

Comment author: komponisto 05 July 2012 03:09:07PM 5 points [-]

Anyway, if you've done anything impressive, finding a champion within the system is easy.

It's not impossible, but "easy" is an overstatement.

One of the most disappointing discoveries of my life was the existence of professors -- even math professors, alas -- who think like high-school teachers or college admissions officers. They not only exist, but exist in large enough numbers that one will actually run into them. The good guys also exist, but they don't dominate the way I thought they did. This realization caused me to change my view of academia.

Now, the vast majority of biology professors would gladly stand up for him to their institution's admissions department.

Again, I think that's an overestimate. Maybe half of them would, but the "vast majority"? You would get a substantial number who, while grudgingly admitting the impressiveness of his accomplishment, would seek to rationalize the traditional status structure by making excuses about his not being "ready" or "a good fit", etc.

Comment author: AlexMennen 05 July 2012 10:03:31PM 2 points [-]

When I did it, it wasn't very difficult. Maybe about a third of the professors I talked to agreed to talk to their admissions department on my behalf, which is remarkably high considering that I had not received any official recognition for my work, I had some difficulty explaining it coherently, it was really only slightly impressive, and I'm a bit short on social skills, which are useful for impressing people (I had a lot of really awkward meetings with professors). Andraka at the very least has a huge advantage over me in the first and third of those problems, which should give him a sizable majority. If he's solid in the second and forth problems as well, I would expect him to get an overwhelming majority.

Comment author: komponisto 05 July 2012 03:33:08AM 5 points [-]

I think more highly of Harvard's admission department than that.

Any particular reason?

Comment author: Vaniver 05 July 2012 03:59:28PM 1 point [-]

My primary reason is I expect that they'll have the best one that money can buy- and I suspect that schools like Harvard explicitly look for a blend of students (since a system that gives them only Senator's sons or a system that gives them only brilliant kids will lower the value of Harvard to both, but a system that gives them, say, 30% Senator's sons and 70% brilliant kids will do better).

Comment author: komponisto 05 July 2012 04:31:33PM *  5 points [-]

My primary reason is I expect that they'll have the best one that money can buy

I think this is wrong. To be sure, they could have that if they wanted, but that doesn't seem to be where they actually spend their (considerable) money. From the book A is for Admission: An Insider's Guide to Getting Into the Ivy League and Other Top Colleges:

I hope by now the point is clear: For the most part, Ivy League hotshots are not the ones reading your application. You will note the conspicuous absence of Rhodes scholars or well-known educators on admissions staffs...As my former colleague from the Putney School in Putney, Vermont, and former Brown admissions officer Harry Bauld writes in his hilarious book on college essays, "This is your audience. Study them well. Not exactly the Nobel Prize panel."

\

and I suspect that schools like Harvard explicitly look for a blend of students

Yes, but they have a formula for achieving the blend they seek, and that formula is going to filter out people with low GPAs and such.

Comment author: Vaniver 05 July 2012 04:41:44PM 2 points [-]

I know that the admissions staff are generally mediocre students who went to that school. But I would expect their system to notice things like "Intel Science Fair winner" and have that trump any GPA signal.

(More reasonably, I think they have a file of names called "admit these people", which it checks applicants against (and if they're on the list, sends it to a human to verify), and Andraka's win was publicized widely enough that he probably made it onto the list, and if someone is doing their job well they routinely import the list of winners from things like the Intel Science Fair into that list.)

Comment author: magfrump 05 July 2012 11:19:36PM 3 points [-]

(More reasonably, I think they have a file of names called "admit these people", which it checks applicants against (and if they're on the list, sends it to a human to verify), and Andraka's win was publicized widely enough that he probably made it onto the list, and if someone is doing their job well they routinely import the list of winners from things like the Intel Science Fair into that list.)

I'm fairly confident that this is a thing that actually exists, because of the associated prestige. Universities would get this if they were optimizing for status, without optimizing for learning at all.

Comment author: komponisto 07 July 2012 05:13:51AM 2 points [-]

However, you also have to consider marginal payoff relative to the cost. Most Science Fair winners will also score high according to the standard formula (involving GPA et cetera); any additional prestige the institution would gain by also admitting the very few who don't probably wouldn't be worth the cost of having such a separate system.

Comment author: magfrump 07 July 2012 07:53:44PM 0 points [-]

Unrelated to my other points: When in your experience have universities acted efficiently, as opposed to just "do things that sound like they'll increase status"?

Comment author: magfrump 07 July 2012 07:52:59PM 0 points [-]

While in some senses I agree, the whole process of admissions just consists of people putting stamps on paper. If one of those people recognizes someone from a news article and just says "hey let's stamp this" it doesn't actually require more bureaucracy. Since all your processes are run by humans it doesn't actually cost anything to add human judgment to your system.

For example, I would be EXTREMELY SURPRISED if there was a computer program that STOPPED a university from admitting someone if they had too low a GPA. It's just that the computer program wouldn't present them to be considered in the first place unless they looked.

In terms of practical tests, I propose that if we look up the set of Intel Science Fair winners, see if there's information about their GPAs, and then look at what universities they got into, I hypothesize that if there are any with GPAs below, say, 3.7, they will still get in to high end universities that normally would only accept students with 4.0s (Stanford, MIT, Harvard, Carnegie Mellon, Johns Hopkins come to mind). I agree that it's unlikely that you'll find any with recorded GPAs below say 3.0, so the question may be purely theoretical anyway.

Comment author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 05 July 2012 06:18:26PM 5 points [-]

If you can find a way to settle the bet, I bet they don't do that. Universities would look extremely different if they optimized for learning in even the most basic ways. This is the should-universe you're talking about, not the is-universe.

Comment author: [deleted] 07 July 2012 06:24:42AM 8 points [-]

I have a dean of admissions at a large university in my nuclear family. Eliezer is right, there's no list like this.

But on the other hand, "Intel Science Fair winner" will PROBABLY attract the attention of the admissions committee. It's basically up to the applicant to craft a good applications package (including essay and letters of recommendation) that will capitalize on their amazing, singular strength, and throw weaknesses like GPA into shadow. If the applicant can't do this, they won't be admitted.

It's a Bardic Conspiracy problem, really. It's a matter of storytelling and presentation.

Comment author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 07 July 2012 07:47:20AM 13 points [-]

I note that it also makes no sense to filter excellent scientists who aren't good writers or who take a long time to write (e.g. PhD dissertation test). If you can do the research, someone else should be able to specialize in writing for you.

It's remarkable how many barrier-to-entry professions revolve around the denial of professional specialization. A surgeon can't just be someone of moderate intelligence and exceptional dexterity who studies and practices one key surgery, no, they need 11 years of medical school that they'll mostly never use. A scientist is forced to write. And so on.

Comment author: Vaniver 07 July 2012 10:34:05PM 1 point [-]

I note that it also makes no sense to filter excellent scientists who aren't good writers or who take a long time to write (e.g. PhD dissertation test). If you can do the research, someone else should be able to specialize in writing for you.

At the level where students are required to write professionally, you can hire someone else to do the writing for you. For writing, they typically call it 'dictation', and it used to be standard, to the point that you still see "this dissertation was typed by the author" in dissertations without dictation. For writing correctly, they call it "editing" and many an advisor has had more influence over the actual wording and structure of the dissertation than the person who gets a PhD because of it.

This can be done to about the degree that it's done in the actual professional life of a scientist: someone else can type your papers and grant proposals and make your presentations for you, and no one will know unless they read the acknowledgements. Typically that's not done, or only done on a small scale, because for most people it takes as long to tell someone else how to write it as to write it yourself. When it is done- like when a friend of mine dictated his thesis and then edited it- no one cares, because they understand that it's more efficient that way.

It also seems to me like it makes sense, since so much of science is communicating your results (and using the results of others). If a Gauss does great work, but leaves it in a desk drawer, what's the point? Why would the establishment want to promote that rather than sharing, especially since individuals are so terrible at accurately judging their creative output without external feedback?

Comment author: [deleted] 07 July 2012 04:48:35PM 1 point [-]

Fair enough on the medical school thing, but is this really a serious barrier in something like physics? How hard is it for a talented researcher to learn to write a technical, scholarly document in a timely fashion? Do you know of any good, hard working scientific talents denied access to resources because of their writing ability? Because I know lots and lots of mediocre researchers who are nevertheless perfectly adequate scholarly authors. It doesn't seem like a demanding filter. In my experience most journal articles are terribly written (much worse than your sequences, for example), so the standards can't be that high.

Comment author: Viliam_Bur 07 July 2012 04:14:48PM 1 point [-]

Yes. People achieve better results if they cooperate, but they are judged by what they do if they are not allowed to cooperate.

This system has an advantage of safety -- you can replace anyone in your organization and it keeps working, because everyone has some level of all the necessary skills. (You will never get stuck with the illiterate researcher and nobody to help them write.) So maybe I just underestimate the value of the safety. But maybe the system underestimates the opportunity costs.

Comment author: MixedNuts 08 July 2012 10:59:42AM 0 points [-]

Disagree about the med school part. Doctors are always running into strange and urgent situations, having to come up with some tentative diagnosis and fix that's more determined by what's available than by taught best practice. Or at least often enough that they can blog about it a lot. Intelligence and training in a wide array of situations is necessary. Learning all about chemical mechanisms you'll never influence at such a low level, not so much. The first years are also probably too general so switching to nursing is easier.

Comment author: Ezekiel 05 July 2012 06:29:01PM 3 points [-]

Out of genuine curiosity, how do you know that? I thought you never went to university.

Comment author: DaFranker 05 July 2012 09:24:17PM 1 point [-]

Personal experience, most likely. What little I've seen / know of his knowledge indicates in-depth mastery of multiple topics that would each have taken five or more years of university courses to learn.

Having learned them all from university courses without special exception being made (that is, taking full-term courses without any skipping of courses or taking more than six courses per term) is highly improbable.

Many of my thought experiments into forming universities or educational institutions in general more geared towards optimized learning (e.g. open-learning systems where each student is at different levels in different subjects, and takes tests when milestones are reached rather than at specific predefined dates) seem to strongly indicate that while many of them would be much better for making more intelligent individuals or letting people learn much faster, the optimal utility-maximizing situation for the "Institutional Governing Body" is the current system. In other words, the individuals in positions of power to change the institutions have much more to gain (at least in the short term on their personal utility scales) in maintaining the current system. All my calculations, estimates and observations so far have consistently been in agreement with this statement, though I suspect a great deal of personal bias is at work here.

Comment author: Vaniver 05 July 2012 07:14:17PM 0 points [-]

If you can find a way to settle the bet, I bet they don't do that.

The closest thing I can think of is contacting people in the admissions department, but I can't think of a cheap way to induce them to answer truthfully.

I'm also willing to consider humans part of the 'system', and so having that 'file' be "Bob recognized this applicant's name" would be enough for my purposes. But I don't know how much human attention their applicants get, and at what parts.

Comment author: hairyfigment 05 July 2012 06:25:35AM 4 points [-]

Yeah, I thought while reading the OP:

  • One could likely get into Harvard by winning a Nobel Prize, or being the guy from "Good Will Hunting".

  • This method seems neither guaranteed nor widely known.

Comment author: DanArmak 05 July 2012 06:34:01PM 4 points [-]

If you've already got a Nobel, what do you need to get into Harvard for?

Comment author: CronoDAS 06 July 2012 01:35:06AM 1 point [-]

Maybe you want to study something you're not already an expert in? (For example, Feynman spent some time taking graduate biology courses.)