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wedrifid comments on Negative and Positive Selection - Less Wrong
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95% of programmers don't have published personally published software.
A more general form of the question: "What publicly available evidence is there for this 95th percentile claim?"
Really?
The Wikipedia article on GitHub claims >1m users (passing the mark in 2011), with around 90,000 unique repositories out of 2m. StackOverflow has a few relevant questions like http://stackoverflow.com/questions/453880/how-many-developers-are-there-in-the-world which give me a vague estimate of perhaps 5-15 million worldwide. 0.1m unique repos to 15m developers is 6.6% and roughly consistent with 5%.
On the other hand, I don't know what 'personally published software' might be. A complete standalone executable or library? I could see most programmers confining their efforts to working on existing codebases, yes, and this would likely cut down the GitHub repo estimate a lot since many of them are no doubt forks with a patch or two of some main repo or dead ends of various kinds.
You're off by an order of magnitude - it's 0.66%.
Whups. I just thought 1/15... Well, an order is still within the margins of error here since a GitHub repo count ignores other sites like SourceForge.
Yes, I'm completely certain. (ie. p=0.6)
Are you implying he's better than 95% just because he has published something? Or what do you mean?
No, I'm saying that it would be misleading to imply the reverse if someone hadn't or to place all that much weight on the published software if they have (except in as much as the published personal software projects establish a lower bound.)
Well, that's why I asked him if he thought he could be fairly judged based on those two published projects. I didn't go ahead and just judge them, and I won't unless Eliezer says they're worth judging because they do establish such a lower bound for him.