wedrifid comments on Negative and Positive Selection - Less Wrong
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My first reaction was pretty much identicle, right now you can do well at almost anything purely based on conscientiousness, including video games, work, school, and social interaction. I don't know of any good way to measure general talent, but when I learn most things I tend to be quite bad at them until I enter tsukoku naritai mode. Perhaps this should influence my career decision somewhat, its hard to tell if talent or effort is more crucial for programming.
Effort. Always assume effort. Talent will speed up the learning process in the early stages, is likely to make effort easier (because it is more fun) and at the extreme upper ends of of performance probably gives a higher limit. But in general effort plus social politics skill will determine your career success.