"The Camel Has Two Humps", which IIRC has been linked here before, does purport to find a bimodal distribution between people who can and can't program. I'm not at all sure if that has anything to do with inborn talent, though, at least beyond basic general intelligence.

At various points in my career I've found reasons to teach people programming skills, and my n=1 impression is that the ability to internalize basic programming has little to do with personality (though conscientiousness helps, and I suspect openness to experience might too) and a lot to do with the student's level of comfort with mathematical thinking. Not necessarily advanced math (you don't need anything more complicated than algebra to program except in specialized domains), but you do need to be very comfortable with a certain level of abstraction. I suspect that might have more to do with the distribution in the linked paper than the "geek gene" concepts I've heard tossed around elsewhere: at the level of the math prerequisites for CS 1 it's still possible to do well by solving problems mechanistically without a good grasp of the abstractions involved, but that won't cut it in computer science. And it'd probably be difficult to teach that in a semester.