army1987 comments on Negative and Positive Selection - Less Wrong

71 Post author: alyssavance 06 July 2012 01:34AM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (262)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: CronoDAS 06 July 2012 06:12:57PM *  5 points [-]

Well, the sports analogy was my own interpretation of what he said.

Game theory question time: you and N other players are playing a dice rolling game. Each player has the choice of rolling a single twenty-sided die, or rolling five four-sided dice. The player with the highest total wins. (Ties are broken by eliminating all non-tying players and then playing again.) Now, rolling 5d4 has an expected score of 12.5 and rolling 1d20 has an expected score of 10.5, so when N=2, it's obviously better to roll 5d4. However, when N becomes sufficiently large, someone is going to roll a 20, so it's better to pick the 20-sided die, which gives you a 1 in 20 chance of rolling a 20 instead of a 1 in 1024 chance of getting five 4s. For exactly what value of N does it become better?

Edit: Fixed stupid math mistakes. That'll teach me to post after staying up all night!

Comment author: [deleted] 06 July 2012 07:46:43PM 4 points [-]

<nitpick>

rolling 1d20 has an expected score of 10

10.5

</nitpick>

Comment author: CronoDAS 06 July 2012 10:32:59PM 1 point [-]

Fixed, thanks.