= 27d567bc2d48d9f40e9ccc20ea370b15)
komponisto comments on Negative and Positive Selection - Less Wrong
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
= 783df68a0f980790206b9ea87794c5b6)
Loading…= b715d02e85f7b3b4ae65ca3d3e450868)
Subscribe to RSS Feed
Powered by Reddit
= f037147d6e6c911a85753b9abdedda8d)
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (262)
Upvoted for this link. I wish I had known this term back in the Amanda Knox days -- this fallacy (or rather, the reverse of it -- failing to take into account conditional dependence of a priori independent events) is a version of the main probability-theoretic error of that case.
This fallacy may also explain why people tend to assign 50% percent probability to the odds of the second child being a boy in the classic puzzle.