gwern comments on Negative and Positive Selection - Less Wrong

71 Post author: alyssavance 06 July 2012 01:34AM

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Comment author: gwern 10 July 2012 12:17:26AM 1 point [-]

It hadn't occurred to me that there is more mathematical talent than there is money to develop it. It seems like the problem with academia is kind of just a lack of funding.

As it happens, a few months ago I saw an interesting paper examining the consequence of the fall of Soviet Russia and the subsequent exodus of top Russian mathematicians (with all their unique results and methods, obscure to the West) into the US. The upshot was that the effect was to push out of academia a lot of lower-ranked American mathematicians - it turned out to be a zero-sum environment... "The Collapse of the Soviet Union and the Productivity of American Mathematicians"

It has been difficult to open up the black box of knowledge production. We use unique international data on the publications, citations, and affiliations of mathematicians to examine the impact of a large post‐1992 influx of Soviet mathematicians on the productivity of their American counterparts. We find a negative productivity effect on those mathematicians whose research overlapped with that of the Soviets. We also document an increased mobility rate (to lower‐quality institutions and out of active publishing) and a reduced likelihood of producing “home run” papers. Although the total product of the pre‐existing American mathematicians shrank, the Soviet contribution to American mathematics filled in the gap. However, there is no evidence that the Soviets greatly increased the size of the “mathematics pie.” Finally, we find that there are significant international differences in the productivity effects of the collapse of the Soviet Union, and that these international differences can be explained by both differences in the size of the émigré flow into the various countries and in how connected each country is to the global market for mathematical publications.