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hamflask comments on Theism, Wednesday, and Not Being Adopted - Less Wrong
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I would say that a religious person dismissing cryonics is at least an order of magnitude more likely than the scenario you proposed.
I take it you mean that the whole scenario MBlume proposed is at least an order of magnitude more likely than the whole scenario I proposed. Quite possibly; but not, I think, much more than an order of magnitude. And I don't think either scenario dominates the landscape in such a way that we can tell whether or not Wednesday should deconvert on the basis of that one scenario.
"If you do X, the very bad thing Y could be a consequence" is not generally a good argument for doing X.