Yes, this is what I was trying to say. I see how the phrase "conditionality of the reward on your assessed probability" could describe Pascal's Wager, but not how it could describe Pascal's Mugging.
More concisely than the original/gwern: The algorithm used by the mugger is roughly:
Find your assessed probability of the mugger being able to deliver whatever reward, being careful to specify the size of the reward in the conditions for the probability
offer an exchange such that U(payment to mugger) < U(reward) * P(reward)
This is an issue for AI design because if you use a prior based on Kolmogorov complexity than it's relatively straightforward to find such a reward, because even very large numbers have relatively low complexity, and therefore relatively high prior probabilities.
From the last thread:
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