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Vaniver comments on An Intuitive Explanation of Solomonoff Induction - Less Wrong
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The soldier in the probability section updates in the wrong direction. If you survived two shots to your helmet, then you were almost certainly not being shot at with a sniper rifle. For instance, my Mosin Nagant (a bolt-action 7.62x54mmR) will penetrate both sides of a WWII era infantry helmet (and presumably, a "soft target" in between) every single time (although, at a shorter range).
BTW, love the article.
Turning it into a 'helmet on a stick' probe seems like the cleanest way to alter the story.
Though, in Pratchett when someone tried that, the shooter had a pretty good model of how clever the soldier was, and shot at where someone would be lying to hold a helmet on a stick.