Oscar_Cunningham comments on An Intuitive Explanation of Solomonoff Induction - Less Wrong

53 Post author: Alex_Altair 11 July 2012 08:05AM

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Comment author: Oscar_Cunningham 09 July 2012 09:56:16PM 1 point [-]

How many alternatives would you keep inventing before you update your probability of it actually working?

Precisely the hypotheses that are more likely than homeopathy. Once I've falsified those the probability starts pouring into homeopathy. Jaynes' "Probability Theory: The Logic Of Science", explains this really well in Chapter 4 and the "telepathy" example of Chapter 5. In particular I learnt a lot by staring at Figure 4.1.