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Oscar_Cunningham comments on An Intuitive Explanation of Solomonoff Induction - Less Wrong
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OK, so you take it to your chem lab and they confirm that the composition is pure sugar, as far as they can tell. How many alternatives would you keep inventing before you update your probability of it actually working?
In other words, when do you update your probability that there is a sniper out there, as opposed to "there is a regular soldier close by"?
Precisely the hypotheses that are more likely than homeopathy. Once I've falsified those the probability starts pouring into homeopathy. Jaynes' "Probability Theory: The Logic Of Science", explains this really well in Chapter 4 and the "telepathy" example of Chapter 5. In particular I learnt a lot by staring at Figure 4.1.