private_messaging comments on An Intuitive Explanation of Solomonoff Induction - Less Wrong

53 Post author: Alex_Altair 11 July 2012 08:05AM

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Comment author: shminux 10 July 2012 06:37:47PM *  0 points [-]

So, suppose that Sabadil cured your allergies 10 times out of 10, you will not take again unless forced to, because "There's no way to estimate it's (sic) probability."? Maybe you need to reread chapter 1 of HPMOR, and brush up on how to actually change your mind.

Comment author: private_messaging 10 July 2012 06:48:32PM *  0 points [-]

The point is that there is a decision method that allows me to decide without anyone having to make a prior.

Say, the cost of trial is a, the cost (utility loss) of missing valid cure to strategy failure is b, you do the N trials , N such that a * N < (the probability of trials given assumption of validity of cure) * b , then you proclaim cure not working. Then you can do more trials if the cost of trial falls. You don't know the probability and you still decide in an utility-maximizing manner (on choice of strategy), because you have the estimate on the utility loss that the strategy will incur in general.

edit: clearer. Also I am not claiming it is the best possible method, it isn't, but it's a practical solution that works. You can know the probability that you will end up going uncured if the cure actually works.