johnlawrenceaspden comments on An Intuitive Explanation of Solomonoff Induction - Less Wrong

53 Post author: Alex_Altair 11 July 2012 08:05AM

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Comment author: Vladimir_Nesov 15 July 2012 05:11:31PM *  3 points [-]

Well, I hate to say this for obvious reasons, but if the magic sugar water cured my hayfever just once, I'd try it again, and if it worked again, I'd try it again.

(This tripped my positive bias sense: only testing the outcome in the presence of an intervention doesn't establish that it's doing anything. It's wrong to try again and again after something seemed to work, one should also try not doing it and see if it stops working. Scattering anti-tiger pills around town also "works": if one does that every day, there will be no tigers in the neighborhood.)

Comment author: johnlawrenceaspden 16 July 2012 09:44:15AM *  0 points [-]

I agree, I'd try not taking it too! I had hayfever as a child, and it was bloody awful. I used to put onion juice in my eyes because it was the only thing that would provide relief. But even as a child I was curious enough to try it both ways.