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Sarokrae comments on An Intuitive Explanation of Solomonoff Induction - Less Wrong
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Apparently not. The effect might be less, I don't think the study checked. But once you know it's a placebo and the placebo works, then you're no longer taking a sugar pill expecting nothing, you're taking a sugar pill expecting to get better.
You could tell the difference between the placebo effect and magic by doing a double blind trial on yourself. e.g. Get someone to assign either "magic" pill or identical sugar pill (or solution) with a random number generator for a period where you'll be taking the drug, prepare them and put them in order for you to take on successive days, and write down the order to check later. Then don't talk to them for the period of the experiment. (If you want to talk to them you can apply your own shuffle and write down how to reverse it)
Wait, what? I'm taking a stack of identical things and whether they work or not depends on a randomly generated list I've never seen?
If you have a selection of 'magic' sugar pills, and you want to test them for being magic vs placebo effect, you do a study comparing their efficacy to that of 'non-magic' sugar pills.
If they are magic, then you aren't comparing identical things, because only some of them have the 'magic' property
Exactly. You write down your observations for each day and then compare them to the list to see if you felt better on days when you were taking the actual pill.
Only if it's not too costly to check, of course, and sometimes it is.
Edit: I think gwern's done a number of self-trials, though I haven't looked at his exact methodology.
Edit again: In case I haven't been clear enough, I'm proposing a method to distinguish between "sugar pills that are magic" and "regular sugar pills".
Edit3: ninja'd