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Stuart_Armstrong comments on Kurzweil's predictions: good accuracy, poor self-calibration - Less Wrong
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Comments (39)
It seems strange to call Siri ubiquitous when smartphone penetration among teenagers is less than 50%. (My own social circle seems to have below-average smartphone penetration, so I may not be well-calibrated.)
When you call 5 partially true and 20 partially false, which are you saying is more correct? 5 seems more correct to me, but "partially false" sounds more correct than "partially true".
Does this mean virtual experience software is more popular than the others, or that it's the most popular type of digital entertainment when you look beyond the others?
Ubiquitous is one of those words that are hard to quantify. "most people have one" is false; "most people know someone who has one" is true.
My scale would go: true, partially true, partially true and partially false, partially false, false.
Both statements are wrong, at least according to the Economist, that put games just second to movies but above music. Again, ambiguity can't be used to make a false statement true...