jmmcd comments on Kurzweil's predictions: good accuracy, poor self-calibration - Less Wrong

33 Post author: Stuart_Armstrong 11 July 2012 09:55AM

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Comment author: jmmcd 11 July 2012 01:41:39PM 5 points [-]

My scale for judging the predictions is: true, partially true, partially false, false.

I dislike this scale. One could argue that "partially false" is better than "partially true".

Comment author: Stuart_Armstrong 11 July 2012 04:05:18PM 1 point [-]

replaced "partially" with "somewhat".

Comment author: ArisKatsaris 11 July 2012 04:17:51PM 4 points [-]

That doesn't really solve the problem. For clarity's sake, you probably ought use "mostly true" and "mostly false".

Comment author: Stuart_Armstrong 11 July 2012 04:22:09PM *  0 points [-]

"Mostly" is too strong a qualifier.

Comment author: evand 11 July 2012 07:40:09PM 14 points [-]

If you're looking for something that means "more than half", then "mostly" is a good choice. If you're looking for something that means "less than half", then you have the problem that "<qualifier> true" means less true than "<qualifier> false".

Comment author: Nominull 12 July 2012 04:01:42AM 5 points [-]

try "roughly" maybe?

Comment author: Stuart_Armstrong 12 July 2012 08:56:43AM 5 points [-]

Going for "weakly true" and "weakly false".