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Icehawk78 comments on Kurzweil's predictions: good accuracy, poor self-calibration - Less Wrong
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Comments (39)
It seems strange to call Siri ubiquitous when smartphone penetration among teenagers is less than 50%. (My own social circle seems to have below-average smartphone penetration, so I may not be well-calibrated.)
When you call 5 partially true and 20 partially false, which are you saying is more correct? 5 seems more correct to me, but "partially false" sounds more correct than "partially true".
Does this mean virtual experience software is more popular than the others, or that it's the most popular type of digital entertainment when you look beyond the others?
It also seems strange to call Siri ubiquitous when, on top of that, iOS only has (as of March 2012) between 30-45% market share (depending on how you measure it), which includes numerous models of iPhone that do not have/support Siri, as well as the numerous people who have access to, but don't primarily use Siri on their iPhones. (In my biased sample of software developer/cubicle dweller coworkers, as well as friends and family, I'd estimate maybe 5-10% of those who I know that have iPhones with Siri actually use Siri on a daily basis.)
By my reading, the statement is saying that music, pictures and movies are more popular than "virtual experience software", and that VES is the next most popular.
Additionally, to respond to Stuart_Armstrong below, without a direct reference, I'd imagine that the Economist simply took into account popularity by sales data, which would ignore things like Pandora/Spotify/YouTube/Reddit usage/browsing that may happen significantly more than paid consumption of music/video (at least for certain segments of society with ubiquitous internet access).