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shminux comments on Kurzweil's predictions: good accuracy, poor self-calibration - Less Wrong
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For comparison, here is a self-assessment of predictions Scott Adams made in The Religion War, about 10 years ago.
Some of the predictions he mentions:
Islamic terrorists would regularly bomb targets in the United States using small “suicide” drones equipped with explosives and GPS guidance
there would be so much data available about individual behavior that skilled programmers could mine it to make freakishly accurate predictions.
The first is false, the second true. Hm, if Adams managed an overall 50% hit rate, then he's close to competitive with Kurzweil!