Stuart_Armstrong comments on Kurzweil's predictions: good accuracy, poor self-calibration - Less Wrong

33 Post author: Stuart_Armstrong 11 July 2012 09:55AM

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Comment author: Stuart_Armstrong 24 July 2012 03:19:52PM 1 point [-]

That's a good idea - will do that when I get back.

Regarding Prediction 29, scoring as "true" something developed soon after the specified date contradicts your prior plan to only count successes BEFORE the predicted date. When predictions are only 10 years out for something widely agreed to be inevitable, good timing is the only impressive part of a prediction. If that is allowed to slip it undercuts the whole exercise.

I stated that I decided to be somewhat flexible on the timeline, specifically because it felt like a lot was being shoehorned into the "ten years from 1999" format.

Comment author: CarlShulman 25 July 2012 01:37:22AM 0 points [-]

Edited my comment to reflect this.