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falenas108 comments on Rationality and Cancer - Less Wrong
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There's a simple utility calculation going on here. I'd say the chances of having cancer given your dentist says you might have it is much higher than .01%. Without doing any research, I think it's safe to assume it is at least 10%, probably more.
So, you have a 90% of wasting $1000 and mildly inconveniencing yourself for a few days, vs. a 10% chance of having major oral problems in the future because you didn't get this treatment. Plus all the social stigma you mentioned earlier. With this analysis, it seems perfectly reasonable to go through with the biopsy.
Thanks. I'm not entirely sure about the 10%, but you're right: When we run the math on breast cancer given a positive mammogram, it's typically a few percent, not 0.01%.
By the way, lest people worry about me too much, my dentist thinks it's most likely pre-cancerous, and that if we remove it now, there's nothing to worry about. Or rather, that it's most likely nothing, maybe pre-cancerous, but probably not actual cancer yet.
Consider the entire probability space: The odds of a major surgical accident, multiplied by the cost of a major surgical accident, against the odds of this untreated anomaly becoming cancerous, multiplied by the cost of that.
Go down the list towards more probable things, and I think you'll find that the median outcome is losing $1k, but the expected outcome is saving 2% of your jaw and some embarrassment. (Or some other percentage).