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SwingDancerMike comments on Rationality and Cancer - Less Wrong
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Thanks. I'm not entirely sure about the 10%, but you're right: When we run the math on breast cancer given a positive mammogram, it's typically a few percent, not 0.01%.
By the way, lest people worry about me too much, my dentist thinks it's most likely pre-cancerous, and that if we remove it now, there's nothing to worry about. Or rather, that it's most likely nothing, maybe pre-cancerous, but probably not actual cancer yet.
Consider the entire probability space: The odds of a major surgical accident, multiplied by the cost of a major surgical accident, against the odds of this untreated anomaly becoming cancerous, multiplied by the cost of that.
Go down the list towards more probable things, and I think you'll find that the median outcome is losing $1k, but the expected outcome is saving 2% of your jaw and some embarrassment. (Or some other percentage).