Cyan comments on How Not to be Stupid: Know What You Want, What You Really Really Want - Less Wrong

0 Post author: Psy-Kosh 28 April 2009 01:11AM

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Comment author: pangloss 28 April 2009 03:50:47AM 1 point [-]

I am thinking more like this: I am a scaredy-cat about roller coasters. So I prefer the tea cups to big thunder mountain rail road. And I maintain that preference after choosing the Tea Cups (I don't regret my decision). However, had I ridden Big Thunder Mountain Rail Road, I would have been able to appreciate that it is awesome, and would have preferred Big Thunder Mountain Rail Road to the Tea Cups.

Since this case seems pretty possible, if the sorts of lessons you are going to draw only apply to hyper-idealized agents who know all their preferences perfectly and whose preferences are stable over time, that is a good thing to note, since the lessons may not apply to those of us with dynamic preference sets.

Comment author: Cyan 28 April 2009 04:17:26AM *  1 point [-]

There are really two cases here. In the first case, you predict prior to going on either ride that your preferences are stable, but you're wrong -- having been coerced to ride BTMRR, you discover that you prefer it. I don't believe this case poses any problems for the normative theory that will follow -- preference orderings can change with new information as long as those changes aren't known in advance.

In the second case, you know that whichever choice you make, you will ex post facto be glad that you made that choice and not the other. Can humans be in this state? Maybe. I'm not sure what to think about this.