VincentYu comments on [LINK] Nick Szabo: Beware Pascal's Scams - Less Wrong

7 Post author: David_Gerard 17 July 2012 07:18AM

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Comment author: JaneQ 21 July 2012 08:50:39PM 5 points [-]

Dunning Kruger effect is likely a product of some general deficiency in the meta reasoning facility leading both to failure of reasoning itself and failure of evaluation of the reasoning; extremely relevant to people that proclaim themselves to be more rational, more moral, and so on than anyone else but do not seem to accomplish above mediocre performance at fairly trivial yet quantifiable things.

Seriously. In no area of research, medicine, engineering, or whatever, the first group to tackle a problem succeeded? Such a world would be far poorer and still stuck in the Dark Ages than the one we actually live in. I realize this may be a hard concept, but sometimes, the first person to tackle a problem - succeeds!

Ghmm. He said first people to take money, not first people to tackle.

The first people to explain the universe (and take some contributions for that) produced something of negative value, nearly all of the medicine until last couple hundred years was not only ineffective but completely harmful, and so on.

If you look at very narrow definitions, of course, the first to tackle nuclear bomb creation did succeed - but the first to tackle the general problem of weapon of mass destruction were various shamans sending a curse. If saving people from AI is an easy problem, then we'll survive without SI; if it's a hard problem, at any rate SI doesn't start with a letter from Einstein to the government, it starts with a person with no quantifiable accomplishments cleverly employing oneself. As far as I am concerned, there's literally no case for donations here; the donations happen via sort of decision noise similar to how NASA has spent millions on various antigravity devices, the power companies have spent millions on putting electrons in hydrogen orbitals at below ground level (see Mills hydrinos), and millions were invested in Steorn's magnetic engine.

Comment author: VincentYu 24 July 2012 03:44:12PM 4 points [-]

Ghmm. He said first people to take money, not first people to tackle.

Speaking of yourself in the third person?

Dmytry, you are abusing sockpuppet accounts. Your use of private_messaging was questionable, but at least you declared it as an alias early on. Right now you are using a sockpuppet with the intent to deceive.

Comment author: gwern 24 July 2012 04:25:04PM 6 points [-]

"Ghmm" is a hapax legomenon used solely by private_messaging/Dmytry and JaneQ.

Comment author: VincentYu 24 July 2012 04:33:08PM 3 points [-]

hapax legomenon

Ah, nice. I've been looking for a phrase/word with this meaning.

"Ghmm" was the phrase that made me certain. Before that I found "edit: i.e." and "etc etc etc", but these were not quite as unique. (PB page)

Comment author: TheOtherDave 24 July 2012 06:05:00PM 2 points [-]

You know, I've been wondering about that for a while now, but it never occurred to me to look for hapaxes (nor had I been aware of the phrase). I have just learned a new technique, for which I have learned a cool new word, which helps solve a problem I actually had. If I endorsed upvoting multiple times, I would upvote you multiple times; as it is, you'll have to settle for an upvote and my gratitude.

Comment author: gwern 24 July 2012 06:45:10PM 2 points [-]

It's just one of the little-known advantages to reading critical analysis of classical or Biblical literature! Although I'd be hard-pressed to name a second advantage.

Comment author: TheOtherDave 24 July 2012 07:16:47PM 1 point [-]

The embarrassing thing, now that you mention it, is that I'm acquainted with this technique in that context (identifying source texts and common authors and so forth) but it still didn't occur to me to apply it here, despite it being the same problem even at a surface level.

(sigh) Corrupted hardware sucks. It ain't the things I don't know that irritate me. It's not even the things I do know that just ain't so. It's the things I know, that are so, and that somehow don't present themselves to be reasoned with when I need them.