a form of insanity X that leads to paranoia but is not compatible with delusion.

But how would a possibly insane person determine that insanity X is a possible kind of insanity? Or, how would they determine that the Law of Noncontradiction is actually a thing that exists as opposed to some insane sort of delusion?

Now, if you want to argue that I still can't rule out X, because that's just a probabilistic statement, well, OK. I also can't rule out that I'm actually a butterfly. In that case, I don't care whether I can rule something out or not, but I'll agree with you and tap out here.

But if we agree that probabilistic statements are good enough for our purposes, then I submit that X is a form of insanity I can rule out.

I was talking about how we should regard unknowable puzzles (ignore them, mostly), like the butterfly thing, so I thought it was clear that I've been speaking in terms of possibilities this entire time. Obviously I'm not actually thinking that I'm insane. If I were, that'd just be crazy of me.

Also, this approach presumes that your understanding of the way probabilities work and of the existence of probability at all is accurate. Using the concept of probability to justify your position here is just a very sneaky sort of circular argument (unintentional, clearly, I don't mean anything rude by this).