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Note that these studies use the same tests (childhood SAT) that Eliezer excelled on (quite a lot higher than the 1 in 10,000 level), and that I was taking into account in my estimation.
Sources?
Also,
a: while that'd be fairly impressive, keep in mind that if it is quite a lot higher than 1 in 10 000 then my prior for it is quite a lot lower than 0.0001 with only minor updates up for 'seeming clever' , and my prior for someone being a psychopath/liar is 0.01, with updates up for talking other people into giving you money.
b: not having something else likewise concrete to show off (e.g. contest results of some kind and the like) will at most make me up-estimate him to bin with someone like Keith Raniere or Chris Langan (those did SAT well too), which is already the bin that he's significantly in. Especially as he had been interested in programming, and the programming is the area where you can literally make a LOT of money in just a couple years while gaining the experience and gaining much better cred than childhood SAT. But also an area that heavily tasks general ability to think right and deal with huge amounts of learned information. My impression is that he's a spoiled 'math prodigy' who didn't really study anything beyond fairly elementary math, and my impression is that it's his own impression except he thinks he can do advanced math with little effort using some intuition while i'm pretty damn skeptical of such stuff unless well tested.
What salary level is good enough evidence for you to consider someone clever?
Notice that your criteria for impressive cleverness excludes practically every graduate student -- the vast majority make next to nothing, have few "concrete" things to show off, etc.
Except the interview you quoted says none of that.
[...]
This is substantially different from EY currently being a math prodigy.
In other words, he's no better than random chance, which is vastly different from "[thinking] he can do advanced math with little effort using some intuition." By the same logic, you'd accept P=NP trivially.
I don't understand. The base rate for Marcello being right is greater than 0.5.
Maybe EY meant that, on the occasions that Eliezer objected to the final result, he was correct to object half the time. So if Eliezer objected to just 1% of the derivations, on that 1% our confidence in the result of the black box would suddenly drop down to 50% from 99.5% or whatever.
Yes, but that's not "no better than random chance."
Sure. I was suggesting a way in which an objection which is itself only 50% correct could be useful, contra Dmytry.
Oh, right. The point remains that even a perfect Oracle isn't an efficient source of math proofs.
It's not criteria for cleverness, it is criteria for evidence when the prior is 0.0001 (for 1 in 10 000) . One can be clever at one in 7 billions level, and never having done anything of interest, but I can't detect such person as clever at one in 10 000 level with any confidence without seriously strong evidence.
I meant, a childhood math prodigy.
If Marcello failed one time out of ten and Eliezer detected it half of the time, that would be better than chance. Without knowing failure rate of Marcello (or without knowing how the failures are detected besides being pointed out by EY), one can't say whenever it is better than chance or not.