Cyan comments on Game Theory As A Dark Art - Less Wrong

50 Post author: Yvain 24 July 2012 03:27AM

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Comment author: Yvain 24 July 2012 07:29:54PM *  4 points [-]

If you can go through that chain of reasoning, so can the other person - therefore, it doesn't seem entirely ridiculous to me to bid $2 to the other person's $1 in the hope that they won't want to enter a bidding war and you'll win $18.

Let's say there's an X% chance you expect the other person to surrender and let you have the $20 for $2 rather than enter the bidding war, and let's also say you don't intend to ever make a bid after your first bid of $2. Then expected value is (X)(20) - (1-X)(2) = 20x - (2 - 2X) = 22X - 2. If X is greater than 1/11 or about 9%, then it's profitable to enter the auction. So unless you're greater than 91% sure that the other person will start a bidding war instead of sacrificing their $1 and letting you have the money, it's positive expected value to enter the auction.

Comment author: Cyan 29 July 2012 10:30:58PM 3 points [-]

What happens if the first bidder bids $19 (or $19.99, or in general, the amount being auctioned minus the smallest permissible increment)? Any potential second bidder can't make any money. (...Without colluding with the auctioneer -- is that allowed?)