Oscar_Cunningham comments on Zero-sum conversion: a cute trick for decision problems - Less Wrong

7 Post author: Manfred 26 July 2012 09:36PM

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Comment author: Oscar_Cunningham 28 July 2012 01:12:18AM 1 point [-]

So their expected value of "yea" is -550, while their expected value of "nay" is -700.

This is only true if the experimenter doesn't know the result of a coin flip (otherwise it's either 1000/700 or 100/700, but you don't know which). But how do you decide to model your opponent as being someone who doesn't know the result, rather than someone who does? The only way I can think of is to follow UDT and always specify that your opponent is in a state of complete ignorance. But once we've borrowed this rule from UDT it seems like we're just plain using all of UDT. We've just made it more complicated by sticking a minus sign on the utilities and then picking the least favoured one. The use of an "opponent" doesn't seem to add any insight.

Suppose I rephrase UDT this way: Visualise a version of yourself before you had any evidence. Do what they would want you to do. As far as I can tell, this is just the above post with the minus signs taken out.

Comment author: Manfred 29 July 2012 02:26:18AM *  0 points [-]

we're just plain using all of UDT

Yep. The exposition is merely different, and a few more of the assumptions hidden behind common sense :P

If this exposition doesn't "work" for you, then that's fine too.