Lumifer comments on Why space stopped captivating minds ? - Less Wrong

10 Post author: kilobug 29 July 2012 09:58AM

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Comment author: Lumifer 24 June 2016 08:55:58PM 0 points [-]

Per Robin Hanson, a machine shop can put out its own mass in equipment in roughly a month or two. And yet, the economy doesn't double every month, or even every year. Why not?

If we switch the example to an excavator which outputs its own mass in an hour or two, does the answer to your question become clearer?

Comment author: lsparrish 24 June 2016 11:27:55PM 0 points [-]

A quick process like that is pretty much insignificant compared to a month or two, let alone 15 years. Unless there are tens of thousands of other steps in the chain of comparable length, it doesn't come close to explaining it.

As I see it, there are roughly four steps:

  1. Excavating.
  2. Refining.
  3. Power collecting.
  4. Manufacturing.

The ones towards the end seem to be the biggest time sinks. However, power collection should not raise it by more than a factor of two or so. I don't think it takes many months to mine enough coal to pay for the energy costs of coal mining equipment, for example.