gwern comments on Always check your assertions... (Winning the Lottery) - Less Wrong

4 Post author: brilee 31 July 2012 10:32AM

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Comment author: gwern 31 July 2012 02:54:43PM 3 points [-]

It says that the state made money on this, too... though I don't quite understand how. Clearly someone had to lose money.

It may be that the state is 'skimming' the rolled over funds from one jackpot to the next: imagine jackpot #1 is short $100 of being +EV, and $50 is kept by the state and $50 is rolled over to the second, which is now short $50; the second jackpot also goes unwon, so another $100 is split between the state and jackpot #3, and now jackpot #3 is neutral EV. Anyone who entered jackpots #1 and #2 lost money, while those entering #3 neither lose nor gain on average, and if there is a jackpot #4 (because again no one happened to win #3), then those entering #4 can expect to gain money, while the state is now up $150. If you follow me.