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TheOtherDave comments on Thoughts on a possible solution to Pascal's Mugging - Less Wrong
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I used to date a girl who had a favorite card trick: she would hand you a deck of cards, ask you to pick one, and say "is it the three of clubs?"
Her theory was that she'd be wrong most of the time, but when she was right it would be really impressive.
It would be a lot more than $50 more impressive (the few times it works) if she said "I bet you a dollar that it's the three of clubs."
I was also considering the 'cider in my ear' angle. Just because you don't see any possible way that I could rig the bet, the fact that I proposed it is an indication above baseline that I might have.
See also.
I instantly thought about that, too.