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Decius comments on Thoughts on a possible solution to Pascal's Mugging - Less Wrong
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It would be a lot more than $50 more impressive (the few times it works) if she said "I bet you a dollar that it's the three of clubs."
I was also considering the 'cider in my ear' angle. Just because you don't see any possible way that I could rig the bet, the fact that I proposed it is an indication above baseline that I might have.