OrphanWilde comments on Politics Discussion Thread August 2012 - Less Wrong

0 Post author: OrphanWilde 01 August 2012 03:25PM

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Comment author: OrphanWilde 01 August 2012 05:13:16PM 0 points [-]

Which is measuring the result of a particular thread of conversation, which is not -quite- the same as judging whether or not the conversation should have been had to begin with. That would be substituting your posterior certainty of a particular claim for your prior certainty for all subsequent claims.

It's data, but you'd need a lot more of that kind of data in order to make claims with any kind of certainty about what your prior certainty should be going forward. There's also the question of whether that data would be collected at all if a particular line of conversation were productive.

Comment author: Alejandro1 02 August 2012 05:45:02PM *  1 point [-]

I had also made a poll on this question once; it ended up exactly tied, so I decided to keep the status quo and not create a politics thread. But I was in favor of creating one, as I argued here.

Comment author: OrphanWilde 02 August 2012 05:59:25PM -1 points [-]

With consolidated evidence, LWers should Aumann update over whether or not they can Aumann update over politics...