Unnamed comments on Politics Discussion Thread August 2012 - Less Wrong

0 Post author: OrphanWilde 01 August 2012 03:25PM

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Comment author: Unnamed 02 August 2012 12:15:10AM *  1 point [-]

This appears to be the Circulation study that you cite: Kahn et al., 2008, "The Impact of Prevention on Reducing the Burden of Cardiovascular Disease". The full-text is free.

The authors of the Circulation study estimate that fully implementing all eleven prevention activities which they discuss would increase US medical spending by $7.6 trillion during the next 30 years, increasing medical spending on cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and coronary heart disease from $9.5T (their baseline estimate) to $17.1T (with $0.9T in savings from better prevention more than offset by $8.5T in new preventive spending). *

Note that these numbers are only for the effects of preventive care on medical spending; they do not include the health benefits of the preventive care. The authors also estimate that fully implementing the prevention activities would prevent 63% of all heart attacks and 31% of all strokes, increasing adult life expectancy by over a year. In total, the $7.6 trillion would buy 244 million additional quality-adjusted life-years, for an average cost of $36,380 per QALY.

* I notice that I am confused: the number "162%" appears in the paper in reference to this spending increase, but I can't figure out what it refers to. Going from $9.5T to $17.1T is an 80% increase.