J_Taylor comments on Politics Discussion Thread August 2012 - Less Wrong

0 Post author: OrphanWilde 01 August 2012 03:25PM

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Comment author: J_Taylor 02 August 2012 01:06:16AM 2 points [-]

People who are pro-life in the abortion debate should also be pro- free birth control pills (those not requiring a co-pay).

Birth control pills are only as reliable as the people who take them. This intervention could very well cause an increase in abortion.

Comment author: Alicorn 02 August 2012 02:10:06AM 3 points [-]

That is a mechanism by which availability of birth control could theoretically increase abortion; do you have any empiricism handy?

Comment author: J_Taylor 03 August 2012 12:41:04AM *  2 points [-]

Absolutely none whatsoever.

Edit: Confound these Lesswrongers, they drive me to research.

Anyways, to make a brief attempt using data from here, it seems that I was either overestimating p(oops|pill) or underestimating p(oops|condom). Of course, the hypothetical pragmatic pro-lifer really should be advocating for Dreaded_Anomaly's suggested methods as opposed to free pills.

Still, I give substantially more credence to the statement:

This intervention would cause a decrease in abortion.

(Note: I was not giving much credence to begin with.)

Comment author: Dreaded_Anomaly 02 August 2012 08:27:02AM 2 points [-]

Long lasting birth control exists and the various methods have much lower failure rates than the once-a-day pill.

Here's a large analysis from the Guttmacher Institute about rates of contraception use vs. rates of abortion. Increased contraception use along with improving methods dramatically reduces the abortion rate.