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mwengler comments on Politics Discussion Thread August 2012 - Less Wrong
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Of course finding cancer early while it can still be operated on is VASTLY more expensive than letting people die untreated. Not only do you pay for the tests on the people that don't have it, you pay for the tests on the people that do have it, and you pay for the treatment once it is discovered.
Perhaps there is some other benefit to preventive care that makes it worth more money? How does the health of someone who has avoided a heart transplant through early detection and treatment of heart disease compare to that of someone with a heart transplant, for example? How does the lifespan compare?
WIthout putting a price on the BENEFITS of the different mix of outcomes, it is impossible to know whether the COSTS of the preventive approaches are worth it or not.
No, preventative medicine does not save money, and there were people who believed that. But it may save some lives and improve many more lives. That has to be studied (and if already studied, discussed) before preventative care is tossed as a waste of money.
No one is advocating tossing preventative care. The problem is that preventative care is treated as a monolithic entity rather than a collection of things, a small subset of which is responsible for most of the benefits.
I agree with the first half, but how sure are you that it's a small subset which is responsible for most of the benefits?
~85% confidence that <=10% of preventative care is responsible for >=66% of the savings.
I'm guessing you made up those numbers?
"Where do priors come from?"
I should have asked "Why do you think it's a small subset?"