Grognor comments on Open Thread, August 1-15, 2012 - Less Wrong

2 Post author: OpenThreadGuy 01 August 2012 03:39PM

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Comment author: novalis 08 August 2012 03:20:00PM 0 points [-]

Intel kept throwing money at the project for years, indicating that they must have been planning on the basis of these predictions.

Comment author: Grognor 08 August 2012 04:34:46PM *  0 points [-]

Which is not the same thing as expecting a project to take much less time than it actually will.

Edit: I reveal my ignorance. Mea culpa.

Comment author: novalis 08 August 2012 06:13:54PM 3 points [-]

I am using the more generalized definition. Wikipedia says:

In 2003, Lovallo and Kahneman proposed an expanded definition as the tendency to underestimate the time, costs, and risks of future actions and at the same time overestimate the benefits of the same actions. According to this definition, the planning fallacy results in not only time overruns, but also cost overruns and benefit shortfalls

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