Agreed. I especially like technique 1. A related technique is to imagine you're going to be called on it. For example, if I predict there's a 90% chance the economic crisis will be over by 2011, I imagine that the second I say the estimate, Omega will come down from the sky and say whether it is or it isn't. Quite often I find that I'm worrying a bit more than 10% that Omega will announce that I was wrong.