kim0 comments on How to come up with verbal probabilities - Less Wrong
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Comments (19)
Verbal probabilities are typically impossible because the priors are unknown and important.
However: relative probabilities and similar can often be given usueful estimates, or limits.
For instance: Seeing a cat is more likely than seeing a black cat because black cats are a subset of cats.
Stuff like this is the reason that pure probability calculations are not sufficient for general intelligence.
Probability distributions however, seem to me to be sufficient. This cat example cuts the distribution in 2.
Kim Øyhus