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gwern comments on How to come up with verbal probabilities - Less Wrong
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I keep track: pbook.trike.com.au
I find that my casual estimates of probability often change dramatically as I pause to type something into my permanent PredictionBook record.
(We're almost ready to go live, but as the front page suggests this is still in beta. We're currently updating the styling to work in Internet Explorer (so until then consider using a good browser instead). We'd love your feedback, so please use the "feedback" tab on the right. When we do go live we'll keep any accounts and data from the beta, so you won't lose anything by signing up now.)
That's an interesting site. May I make a suggestion?
Since a year or two ago when someone suggested on OB that tracking predictions would be good for your mental health, I've pondered how one could do that with software. The problem is that the things where prediction tracking delivers day-to-day bacon - such as whether I'll like the vanilla or chocolate better, or which route to work will be faster - are also so minor that no one would bother writing them down and later inputting them to some website/program. The friction/overhead is just way too high.
But I've been looking at twitter, and it seems to me, that maybe if your cellphone is on and all you have to do is type up the prediction and % and hit enter, maybe that's lightweight enough to make it a habit. What do you guys think?
Agreed. Tweet it, or email it, or SMS it, or enter it into the iPhone app, or use the method that we didn't think of, but that some other hacker was able to put together using our API. Alternative input methods are high on our todo list.