gwern comments on A cynical explanation for why rationalists worry about FAI - Less Wrong

25 Post author: aaronsw 04 August 2012 12:27PM

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Comment author: gwern 06 August 2012 07:28:58PM *  1 point [-]

Perhaps you could first unpack your implicit unstated argument from random poll number to sarcastic remarks about not being physicists, so no one winds up criticizing something you then say you didn't mean.

Comment author: David_Gerard 06 August 2012 07:46:32PM *  -1 points [-]

So ask the question next survey. I do, however, strongly suspect they're expressing an opinion on something they don't actually understand - and I don't think that's an unfair assumption, given most people don't - which would imply they were only doing so because "believe in MWI" is a local trope.

So which bit was unfair?

Comment author: ArisKatsaris 07 August 2012 08:38:36AM 2 points [-]

I certainly hope the next survey will ask how many of those saying they agree or disagree with it

Since our certainty was given as a percentage, none of us said we agreed or disagreed with it in the survey, unless you define "agree" as certainty > 50% and "disagree" as certainty below 50%

Or are you saying that we should default to 50%, in all cases we aren't scientifically qualified to answer of our own strength? That has obvious problems.

"So ask the question next survey. I do, however, strongly suspect they're expressing an opinion on something they don't actually understand"

That's like asking people to explain how consciousness works before they express their belief in the existence of brains, or their disbelief in the existence of ghosts.

Comment author: gwern 06 August 2012 08:01:18PM *  2 points [-]

I do, however, strongly suspect they're expressing an opinion on something they don't actually understand - and I don't think that's an unfair assumption, given most people don't - which would imply they were only doing so because "believe in MWI" is a local trope.

What is "actually understand" here and why does it sound like a dichotomy? Are you arguing that one cannot have any opinion about MWI based on any amount of understanding derived from popularizations (Eliezer-written or otherwise) which falls short of one being able to solve technical problems you list?

Surely you don't believe that one is not allowed to hold any opinion or confidence levels without becoming a full-fledged domain expert, but that does sound like what your argument is.

Comment author: David_Gerard 07 August 2012 11:21:17AM *  0 points [-]

Given that the MWI is claimed to follow by just taking the equations seriously, then I think understanding the equations in question is not an unreasonable prerequisite to having a meaningful opinion on that.

Comment author: OrphanWilde 06 August 2012 08:04:25PM 1 point [-]

Your line of argument could equally apply to quantum physicists.