gwern comments on What are the optimal biases to overcome? - Less Wrong

60 Post author: aaronsw 04 August 2012 03:04PM

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Comment author: gwern 04 August 2012 07:38:16PM 5 points [-]

http://lesswrong.com/lw/ahz/cashing_out_cognitive_biases_as_behavior/ may be of relevance. The single strongest correlation with various unhappy behaviors or outcomes (the DOI) in Bruine de Bruine 2007 (weaker than the overall correlation with succumbing to various fallacies, though!) was 'Applying Decision Rules':

Applying Decision Rules asks participants to indicate, for hypothetical individual consumers using different decision rules, which of five DVD players they would buy (e.g., “Lisa wants the DVD player with the highest average rating across features,” describing an equal weights rule). Each consumer chooses from a different set of five equally priced DVD players with varying ratings of picture quality, sound quality, programming options, and brand reliability (from 1 [very low] to 5 [very high]). The decision rules are taken from Payne, Bettman, and Johnson (1993) and include elimination by aspects, satisficing, lexicographic, and equal weights rules. The present task uses more complex rules than the Y-DMC, which, in pretests, proved too easy for adults. Performance is measured by the percentage of items for which the correct DVD players are chosen, given the decision rule to be applied.

Seems somewhat reasonable to me - if you can't even shop well, you're probably going to overspend or buy unsatisfactory stuff or just junk, behavior which will cost you over your entire life.