Comment comments on What are the optimal biases to overcome? - Less Wrong

60 Post author: aaronsw 04 August 2012 03:04PM

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Comment author: [deleted] 05 August 2012 09:19:01AM 19 points [-]

I really don't like the word 'bias' especially in combination with 'overcoming'. It implies that there's the ideal answer being computed by your brain, but it has a bias added to it, which you can overcome to have a correct answer. Much more plausible is that you do not have the answer, and you substitute some more or less flawed heuristic. And if you just overcome this heuristic you will get dumber..

Comment author: Swimmer963 06 August 2012 03:49:35AM 4 points [-]

I think your point is a good one. However, I don't think you're disagreeing with the main point of the post, since 'flawed heuristics' are more an example of the traditional 'biases' studied by researchers, which aaronsw is indeed claiming aren't that important for improving general rationality. The "not getting around to reading a 'nonprofits for dummies' book" isn't an example of overcoming a heuristic and becoming dumber, it's an example of having a knowledge/common sense gap and not applying any kind of heuristic at all. "Always read the relevant 'for dummies' book first if you want to start working on a project" is a heuristic, which is probably biased in itself, but which most people don't follow when they would be better off following it.

Also, I think there is more subtlety to 'overcoming bias' than just not using that heuristic anymore (and maybe being dumber). Heuristics exist because they are useful in most circumstances, but they occasionally fail massively when subjected to new and unexpected types of situations. Realizing that thinking happens in the form of heuristics, and then trying to notice when you're in a situation where you wouldn't expect the heuristic to apply, can help with the problem of being overconfident on a given problem. Recognized ignorance is preferable to being very certain of an answer that is likely wrong, in terms of not making decisions that will blow up in your face.

Comment author: [deleted] 06 August 2012 06:54:23AM *  3 points [-]

There may be more subtlety in the ideal but I fail to see it in practice, and least of all I see any sign of lower overconfidence.