handoflixue comments on What are the optimal biases to overcome? - Less Wrong

60 Post author: aaronsw 04 August 2012 03:04PM

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Comment author: handoflixue 06 August 2012 08:40:51PM 1 point [-]

I don't think the problem here is thinking in terms of statistics; I think that the problem is attempting to use a simple model for a complicated decision.

Both geeks and laypeople seem to use overly simply models, but (in my experience) they simplify in DIFFERENT ways: Geeks/"rationalists" seem to over-emphasize numbers, and laypeople seem to under-emphasize them. Geeks focus on hard data, while laypeople focus on intuition and common sense.

Comment author: fubarobfusco 06 August 2012 09:39:18PM 3 points [-]

"Intuition and common sense" sound more like styles of thought process, not models. The models in question might be called "folklore" and "ordinary language" — when thinking "intuitively" with "common sense", we expect the world to fit neatly into the categories of ordinary language, and for events to work out in the way that we would find plausible as a story.