Yvain comments on Bayes for Schizophrenics: Reasoning in Delusional Disorders - Less Wrong
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Talking about "drawing inferences from mental states" strikes me as a case of the homunculus fallacy, i.e., thinking that there's some kind of homunculus sitting inside our brains looking at the mental states and drawing inferences. Whereas in reality mental states are inferences.
Really? I don't see that at all. The same mental state can be both an inference and a premise for the next inference. For example, "I feel really tired lately -> Maybe I'm sick" seems pretty straightforward, as does "I am a guy and feel really attracted to other guys -> maybe I'm gay".
You're thinking of the inference as "I don't feel affection when I see her face -> She's not my wife". Whereas, another way to think about it is "Her face looks like [insert description of wife's face here] -> She's not my wife".