prase comments on Bayes for Schizophrenics: Reasoning in Delusional Disorders - Less Wrong
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It seems almost certain. In the least one should know about CIA's existence to have that sort of delusion.
This is a great question to test the emotional reaction hypothesis. I would add: what about their enemies? A negative emotional response is still an emotional response (well, maybe, I wouldn't be so surprised if negative and positive emotions were each associated with a different part of the brain).