Risto_Saarelma comments on Bayes for Schizophrenics: Reasoning in Delusional Disorders - Less Wrong
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In the hospital where I worked, there was a woman who was able to articulate that it was very unlikely that her neighbor could read her mind. But, she reasoned, there were a lot of people in the world, so surely someone could read minds. And she had the bad luck to live next door to that person.
So sometimes people are able to acknowledge that their beliefs are statistically unlikely but still believe them.