I do like the idea of creating a decision market to value those metrics (although the inherent bias of e.g. a rich Stanford alum believing a Stanford degree is worth an extra $10M and wanting to lend "too much" money on that basis only helps the business get seeded).
Unlike a Human Capital Contract, we're presupposing the lender knows the value of the goal, and unlike a loan, the triggers aren't to protect an interest ((re)payment milestones) so much as mold a desirable outcome (achievement milestones), and again, while student loans are the obvious application (and easiest to visualize), this is supposed to apply to any process where future earnings or returns are increased by more than the present value of the loan, and where the goal is less likely to be achieved in the absence of money.
Student loans are already prevalent (even if the terms of the loans are so poor that the purpose of the loan can't be met due to sacrifices needed to repay the loan); while those loans could be preconditioned ("I'll only give you this money if you work towards a degree that promises to repay it, even if you never in fact graduate"), I still think that's a far different story than "here's how much money you can borrow after achieving these steps on the way to this desirable goal (or spectrum of goals)" ... where no money is paid even if e.g. the student gets a "C" in a course they needed to get a "B" in, and only learns most of the material in a course the funder felt was worthwhile, and as a result the student has still gained some skills in logic, math, science, whatever the agenda is that's being pushed.
Optics: 'Real Genius' humor? har. But as important as it is to deconstruct a business model into functional parts, a big part of it is messaging and perception ... and while the process of borrowing from your future self (via a pool of money provided by investors) may be functionally indistinguishable from taking out a loan in many respects, I think the appeal of the two concepts are very different. It is actual human beings we're lending money to here (many of whom, by definition, are undereducated), so perception is more-or-less the reality. The fact that the primary debate still seems to be "how is this different than just lending cash?" tells me that I have a "Tivo problem" ... even if it's a great idea, if it can't be clearly communicated in a sentence or two then it's a non-starter. So, late-night infomercial tagline might be: "Do you feel like you are the only person in the world who would lend you the money you need right now to achieve your goals tomorrow?" If that's not both clear and compelling, then this is a bad idea.
SUMMARY: Let's collect people who want to work on for-profit companies that have significant positive impacts on many people's lives.
Google provides a huge service to the world - efficient search of a vast amount of data. I would really like to see more for-profit businesses like Google, especially in underserved areas like those explored by non-profits GiveWell, Singularity Institute and CFAR. GiveWell is a nonprofit that is both working toward making humanity better, and thinking about leverage. Instead of hacking away at one branch of the problem of effective charity by working on one avenue for helping people, they've taken it meta. They're providing a huge service by helping people choose non-profits to donate to that give the most bang for your buck, and they're giving the non-profits feedback on how they can improve. I would love to see more problems taken meta like that, where people invest in high leverage things.
Beyond these non-profits, I think there is a huge amount of low-hanging fruit for creating businesses that create a lot of good for humanity and make money. For-profit businesses that pay their employees and investors well have the advantage that they can entice very successful and comfortable people away from other jobs that are less beneficial to humanity. Unlike non-profits where people are often trying to scrape by, doing the good of their hearts, people doing for-profits can live easy lives with luxurious self care while improving the world at the same time.
It's all well and good to appeal to altruistic motives, but a lot more people can be mobilzed if they don't have to sacrifice their own comfort. I have learned a great deal about this from Jesse and Sharla at Rejuvenate. They train coaches and holistic practitioners in sales and marketing - enabling thousands of people to start businesses who are doing the sorts of things that advance their mission. They do this while also being multi-millionaires themselves, and maintaining a very comfortable lifestyle, taking the time for self-care and relaxation to recharge from long workdays.
Less Wrong is read by thousands of people, many of whom are brilliant and talented. In addition, Less Wrong readers include people who are interested in the future of the world and think about the big picture. They think about things like AI and the vast positive and negative consequences it could have. In general, they consider possibilities that are outside of their immediate sensory experience.
I've run into a lot of people in this community with some really cool, unique, and interesting ideas, for high-impact ways to improve the world. I've also run into a lot of talent in this community, and I have concluded that we have the resources to implement a lot of these same ideas.
Thus, I am opening up this post as a discussion for these possibilities. I believe that we can share and refine them on this blog, and that there are talented people who will execute them if we come up with something good. For instance, I have run into countless programmers who would love to be working on something more inspiring than what they're doing now. I've also personally talked to several smart organizational leader types, such as Jolly and Evelyn, who are interested in helping with and/or leading inspiring projects And that's only the people I've met personally; I know there are a lot more folks like that, and people with talents and resources that haven't even occurred to me, who are going to be reading this.
Topics to consider when examining an idea:
An example idea from Reichart Von Wolfsheild:
A project to document the best advice we can muster into a single tome. It would inherently be something dynamic, that would grow and cover the topics important to humans that they normally seek refuge and comfort for in religion. A "bible" of sorts for the critical mind.
Before things like wikis, this was a difficult problem to take on. But, that has changed, and the best information we have available can in fact be filtered for, and simplified. The trick now, is to organize it in a way that helps humans. which is not how most information is organized.
Collaboration
Finally: If this works right, there will be lots of information flying around. Check out the organization thread and the wiki.