John_Maxwell_IV comments on Why Don't People Help Others More? - Less Wrong
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The affective/deliberative dichotomy could be the same as near/far from construal level theory. Hypotheses:
Giving someone a number of people that's been affected, like 3 million, triggers abstract processing and causes those people to be processed as socially distant. (Especially a large number--a small number, like 1, could cause you to start wondering about that particular person, causing them to be processed as socially close.)
The family that "will be selected" is construed as being "far away" temporally, causing them to be processed as socially distant instead of socially close.
By the way, I recommend this review over Robin Hanson's writings for understanding near/far. Some of the stuff I've seen him write on near/far has made me think "no, that sounds wrong", although I haven't yet clarified my own interpretations enough to write them up. At least with a review you're getting it straight from the source.